Paphos People

Turkey issues new gas threat, Friday Turkey issued a direct threat to Greek Cypriots that it will take all necessary measures to protect its interests, this is the next phase in the dispute regarding oil and gas.
Erogan has always said he would not compromise on this issue, alarmingly he has even told the UN it is not up for debate, he also has said I will do what ever it takes to ensure we control the wealth below the sea. T
he president has been swept to power and now has new powers, he will obviously look after his own at the expense of Cyprus, should we be concerned, hmmm possibly.

If he has the balls to attack a French, USA oil rig...go for it.

And with UK bases on his doorstep.
No matter the cost ....
Remember the Falklands ?

Turkey will not allow development of Cypriot gas reserves until such time as they have a "solution" to the current problem they are happy with and Cyprus accepts as binding. Any such "agreement" will of course have to have shared revenues as part of it, a proviso that makes a settlement even more difficult to achieve

There is plenty of cheap oil and gas out there- any Western company that puts itself in the middle of this dispute would be particularly stupid and any foreign government that backed that company would be very silly too. "Exploration" is one thing, commercial exploitation another thing altogether

Turkey is a very important ally for all sorts of reasons (without it the EU could collapse under the weight of the migrant crisis) it has a very strong military and Erdogan isn't the sort of person to back down if a conflict is brewing. It would take a major miracle if Cyprus was given sufficient protection by any foreign power to exploit it's reserves without Turkish approval and the consequences for Cyprus in particular would not be pretty if it did kick off big time

One good reason for Cyprus becoming more friendly with Russia.

Are you really suggesting Turkey would attack a French/USA rig..... come on get serious

No French or or US company will drill for oil or gas unless there is a solution- they will explore, but they will not produce.

If Turkey is willing to shoot down Russian fighters allegedly in it's airspace it won't hesitate to attack anything else.The US cannot afford to lose Turkey as an ally, France cannot afford to fall out with Turkey as long as it holds the key to Syrian refugee crisis.

The situation simply won't arise- any American or French company that goes drilling for oil will not get the backing of their government, because their governments are not that stupid

Turkey would not dare attack any major power in their own territorial waters, but they won't hesitate to attack in disputed ones (not that the situation will ever arise)

If it ever did arise Turkey will not be bombing France/US and France/US will not be bombing Turkey- they will be bombing the territory at the centre of the dispute. No major power is going to push it that far on Cyprus' behalf and if they ever did the biggest potential loser will be Cyprus itself

I rather doubt the British Bases would come to the rescue, they didn't in 1974.
Anymore than they will, or could, prevent Turkey annexing the TRNC.
If there is trouble here one way or the other it will prove to be unfortunate the BHC no longer maintains a register of UK Citizens resident (yellow slips) here.
Geoff.

If Turkey formally annexes the North after the talks fail and /or no workable solution is reached, no one is going to do anything about that either.

Turkey is a bully ...bullys only hit targets that cant hit back.ie Cyprus...Turkey will not do a thing

Turkey won't do a thing because Turkey knows it doesn't have to.

Israel and Russia might be better bets for protection against Turkish aggression, but Britain, France and the US won't do anything. Any British , French or US company that sent their personnel into such danger would have their corporate backsides sued off and no other power is going to stand guarantor for Cyprus in its endeavours to assert what it believes to be it's sovereign rights

Being allied to Russia and Israel in oil exploration might be a better bet but that brings about a new set of problems and possible consequences , none of which Cyprus as a primarily tourist resort could afford to risk.

Sure Turkey and Erdogan are bullies - that's what international power politics is all about. Cyprus has played it's hand disastrously with Turkey (as has the EU) and the bullies now hold a better hand- that's as plain as the nose on your face. Thing about the nose on your face however is that it's very difficult to see it yourself and when you do it's usually back to front and looks a lot better to you than it probably is

Again Geoff a very silly comment...the British Army at the time were in no position to repel the Turks...who were actually acting in accordance with its obligations of a signature of the 1960 Independence agreement and protecting the TC population against a Greek inspired Coup...the British did however protect thousands of GC citizens who sought shelter in the SBA's and evacuated President Makarios to,safety.

Geoff made a point about the SBA not doing anything, well I was a young soldier based in Germany when that kicked off in 1974, if my old grey cells recall a conversation with my boss it goes something like this.
Me. Boss are we going to war with Turkey? my granddad fought the Turks in the first world war.
Boss. Don't be daft lad, we have no interest in Cyprus just two bases and the Turks wont attack them.
Me Why is that
Boss. Don't you know your history, well we signed Cyprus over to them and they are now independent, we have no sovereign claim anymore and to do so is a act of war against Turkey and that will not happen..
Me Oh, thanks for the explanation.
Hope you enjoyed my explanation as a young naïve soldier.

The SBA's actually did do something....they protected Thousands of GC citizens and did not allow the Turkish Army onto Soverign Soil.....in Dhekelia they actually challenged the resolve of the British....the Turks backed down.

1. The British did not fight the Turks in 1974 and so try to repel them from Cyprus.
2. I don't think they would now, whatever the circumstances.

Geoff.

I think that the British were at the airport in Nicosia, Geoff.
Holding it, against the Turks.

I think that the British were at the airport in Nicosia, Geoff.
Holding it, against the Turks.[/quote]

Maybe so, and as has been said they did give humanitarian aid to the GCs.
BUT, they did not battle the Turks and try to stop them occupying approx. one third of the Island.
And, more importantly, they wouldn't now.
Right now there is nothing to prevent the Turks annexing the TRNC as part of mainland Turkey.
Embargos etc would then be lifted, as the EU etc would not wish to extend those embargos to include mainland Turkey.
OK, there would be a lot of "heat" in the UN, but nothing would come of it.
Plus the UN could then pull out of Cyprus saving much money and redeploy elsewhere where they would be really needed.
That is the way I see it all going, as the 43 year old en-passé cannot continue, and both sides here are too entrenched to facilitate a settlement.
Geoff.

Britain did not fight in the Turkey invasion of Cyprus and that caused a lot of resentment among many factions, yes we helped save many lives but we did not fight, there were no shots fired at the Turkish. From being that young soldier back in 74 during my time in the Army I had to study various conflicts that the UK was involved with and one subject was this.
I have put this web address for everyone to read.

http://www.academia.edu/.../British_Non ... is_of_1974
If the hyperlink does not work, copy and paste into your browser

Anyway We have gone off script slightly my point was will Turkey use military force again over GAS & OIL

Maybe so, and as has been said they did give humanitarian aid to the GCs.
BUT, they did not battle the Turks and try to stop them occupying approx. one third of the Island.
And, more importantly, they wouldn't now.
Right now there is nothing to prevent the Turks annexing the TRNC as part of mainland Turkey.
Embargos etc would then be lifted, as the EU etc would not wish to extend those embargos to include mainland Turkey.
OK, there would be a lot of "heat" in the UN, but nothing would come of it.
Plus the UN could then pull out of Cyprus saving much money and redeploy elsewhere where they would be really needed.
That is the way I see it all going, as the 43 year old en-passé cannot continue, and both sides here are too entrenched to facilitate a settlement.
Geoff.[/quote]
Ive read some rubbish on forums over the years, and this is right up there, do you just post to be provocative?
Turkey has illegali occupied Cyprus, for over forty years, and guess what only one country, recognizes the north, yes its Turkey the occupier , so how will another illegal act, change the UNs/EU stance on this....you really do your self no favors by posting rubbish like this, im sure you dont even believe what you post, you just do it for effect.

If we get a labour government on Thursday we will not be able to defend anything.I,ll bet the Argentinians are watching our election closely.The very threat of invading the falklands again will get us to concede.And mr Putin will also rub his hands.Mmmmm is the British bulldog about to have its teeth extracted.

I think that the British were at the airport in Nicosia, Geoff.
Holding it, against the Turks.[/quote]

Maybe so, and as has been said they did give humanitarian aid to the GCs.
BUT, they did not battle the Turks and try to stop them occupying approx. one third of the Island.
And, more importantly, they wouldn't now.
Right now there is nothing to prevent the Turks annexing the TRNC as part of mainland Turkey.
Embargos etc would then be lifted, as the EU etc would not wish to extend those embargos to include mainland Turkey.
OK, there would be a lot of "heat" in the UN, but nothing would come of it.
Plus the UN could then pull out of Cyprus saving much money and redeploy elsewhere where they would be really needed.
That is the way I see it all going, as the 43 year old en-passé cannot continue, and both sides here are too entrenched to facilitate a settlement.
Geoff.[/quote]
Ive read some rubbish on forums over the years, and this is right up there, do you just post to be provocative?
Turkey has illegali occupied Cyprus, for over forty years, and guess what only one country, recognizes the north, yes its Turkey the occupier , so how will another illegal act, change the UNs/EU stance on this....you really do your self no favors by posting rubbish like this, im sure you dont even believe what you post, you just do it for effect.[/quote]

I just give my considered opinion having worked and lived in the Near/Middle East for decades.
If Turkey annexes the TRNC the UN/EU stance would alter because to keep the embargos on would entail embargoing Turkey as well - they would not wish to do that for 3 reasons:
1. Turkey is holding millions of refugees and the EU is paying them to do so. EU would not want
those refugees releasing and bound for EU States.
2. Trade is too valuable with Turkey.
3. USA has bases in Turkey, they wouldn't want to risk losing those, and would pressure the EU.

In short Turkey holds all the cards as far as Cyprus is concerned.
The GCs have screwed up the peace talks - as they sew so will they reap.
(I repeat, IN MY OPINION, if you think it is rubbish what do you think would happen if Turkey annexed the TRNC?)
Geoff.

Maybe so, and as has been said they did give humanitarian aid to the GCs.
BUT, they did not battle the Turks and try to stop them occupying approx. one third of the Island.
And, more importantly, they wouldn't now.
Right now there is nothing to prevent the Turks annexing the TRNC as part of mainland Turkey.
Embargos etc would then be lifted, as the EU etc would not wish to extend those embargos to include mainland Turkey.
OK, there would be a lot of "heat" in the UN, but nothing would come of it.
Plus the UN could then pull out of Cyprus saving much money and redeploy elsewhere where they would be really needed.
That is the way I see it all going, as the 43 year old en-passé cannot continue, and both sides here are too entrenched to facilitate a settlement.
Geoff.[/quote]
Ive read some rubbish on forums over the years, and this is right up there, do you just post to be provocative?
Turkey has illegali occupied Cyprus, for over forty years, and guess what only one country, recognizes the north, yes its Turkey the occupier , so how will another illegal act, change the UNs/EU stance on this....you really do your self no favors by posting rubbish like this, im sure you dont even believe what you post, you just do it for effect.[/quote]

I just give my considered opinion having worked and lived in the Near/Middle East for decades.
If Turkey annexes the TRNC the UN/EU stance would alter because to keep the embargos on would entail embargoing Turkey as well - they would not wish to do that for 3 reasons:
1. Turkey is holding millions of refugees and the EU is paying them to do so. EU would not want
those refugees releasing and bound for EU States.
2. Trade is too valuable with Turkey.
3. USA has bases in Turkey, they wouldn't want to risk losing those, and would pressure the EU.

In short Turkey holds all the cards as far as Cyprus is concerned.
The GCs have screwed up the peace talks - as they sew so will they reap.
(I repeat, IN MY OPINION, if you think it is rubbish what do you think would happen if Turkey annexed the TRNC?)
Geoff.[/quote]
Your Opinion yes, A biased pro Turkish view, as always...
If Turkey were stupid enough to annex the north, that would kill any hopes they have of joining Europe, the crossing points would be closed, thousands of Turkish Cypriots would be denied coming to the South for free medical treatment, education etc etc, O and you would not be able to have your daily trips to the north.

Geoff ....
Apart from protecting some residents (of both sides !! ) from each other .... and holding the Nicosia Airport from allowing the Turkish invasion to take further hold .... whilst British troops were being attacked by both sides !!
How much more do you think the British could have done at that time .... with a finite, small contingent of military capabilities ?

Quite a lot of damage, don't forget the British had/have Akrotiri and the means to bomb and straff the enemy. They didn't even try (purely political decision I suspect).
Geoff.

Reply to COYS:
Regards the Turks I don't take sides. I love all this Island, TRNC and RoC.
I am not sure the Turkish still want to join the EU, I mean why join the "Titanic"?
If they annex the TRNC, which seems a strong possibility, the question of the "Border" as you call it does arise.
Actually it is NOT a border, it is a Ceasefire Demarcation Line.
Why would the Turks want to close it? They were the ones behind it opening. For us Brits it has always been open BTW.
So I take it you think the Greek Cypriot side would close it; have I understood you correctly on this point?
I am pleased we now seem to be having a meaningful debate.
Geoff.

Would you advocate suicide ...... against a local force, the size of Turkey ?
The lack of support from others, especially other NATO members, was lacking .... and still is, against a rogue, bullying entity !

[quote="geoffreys"]Reply to COYS:
Regards the Turks I don't take sides. I love all this Island, TRNC and RoC.
I am not sure the Turkish still want to join the EU, I mean why join the "Titanic"?
If they annex the TRNC, which seems a strong possibility, the question of the "Border" as you call it does arise.
Actually it is NOT a border, it is a Ceasefire Demarcation Line.
Why would the Turks want to close it? They were the ones behind it opening. For us Brits it has always been open BTW.
So I take it you think the Greek Cypriot side would close it; have I understood you correctly on this point?
I am pleased we now seem to be having a meaningful debate.
Geoff.

Please show me where I called it a Border

In your post of 5th June - but I see it has now changed to crossing point.
What is your answer to my question - do you think the Greek side would close the "crossing points"?
Geoff.

Listen up I have changed NOTHING on my post,,,,I await your apology.

For COYS:
I didn't say you had changed it, just that it has been changed.
Maybe one of those Cyberspace Terrorists from the TRNC?
Have a better day.
Geoff.