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 Post subject: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 8:50 am 
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Last night I was at dinner with my landlord and a few of his friends (male only dinner), as the night grew on the wine was flowing the Cyprus problem came up.
I was asked what I thought, being the diplomat replied "sad but one day it will be sorted". One chap said it will never be sorted, Anastasiades does not want to deal and if a deal was struck then it will not be in our interests. By the end of the discussion I gathered that there is still a lot of bitterness about 1974, there would be bloodshed again when those that lost everything went back, this is very similar to Northern Ireland, it still simmers below the surface.
The Cyprus problem will not be solved for years to come very sad indeed.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 9:14 am 
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Very true!
The added difficulty now is the President of Turkey, Erdogan. He wants to annex the TRNC as a province of Turkey. The TRNC leadership does not want this, but as Turkey pays the bills there is not much they could do to stop it.
The drilling etc for gas/oil just adds to the problem. and to Erdogan's determination.
What seems likely to me is Turkey creating an incident at sea in the Cyprus EEZ.
This could be then used to trigger annexation (= partition), possibly in 10 days or so during Ramadan.
The question then would be if either side would close the "border" (ceasefire demarcation line)?
Geoff.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 10:35 am 
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geoffreys wrote:
The question then would be if either side would close the "border" (ceasefire demarcation line)?
Geoff.


Hello Geoff, I had not noticed you were back, is it just a holiday visit? :bearhug

President "Nasty Nick" would be forced by pressure of public opinion, the church and parties like DIKO to take some sort of token action beyond complaining to to the UN. As there is no trade either way, sanctions are inappropriate as would be any military measures. The only tool in Nicks political tool box in such a scenario would be to close the crossing points.

I think annexation by Turkey is more than a possibility, it is a probability. I have family living in the north and they think so as well. Erdogan knows if he does annex TRNC, no one will do anything apart from a token sanction or two.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 11:08 am 
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The talks are going nowhere and to be honest it is hard to imagine a settlement that the South could find acceptable, given that Turkey has no incentive to offer up any concessions at all- and let's face it no one is really in a position to do anything if Turkey decides to annex the North.

EU membership if off the agenda (Erdogan doesn't even seem interested in that, so any clout Cyprus thought it might have attained by exercising some sort of membership veto is out the window) and the EU dare not impose sanctions against Erdogan lest he direct the millions of refugees he is "looking after" on the EU's behalf towards Germany and the rest of Europe.

Too many people don't want a solution or are unwilling to accept some sort of compromise to allow such a thing to ever happen, so annexation is perhaps becoming the likeliest option


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 11:53 am 
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The one thing that makes this interesting is the recent deals with Russia, also in one of my posts the Russians want to form a political party. So if Mr Turkey goes too far then he may have an issue with Russia.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 12:12 pm 
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Polemi Dave wrote:
geoffreys wrote:
The question then would be if either side would close the "border" (ceasefire demarcation line)?
Geoff.


Hello Geoff, I had not noticed you were back, is it just a holiday visit? :bearhug

President "Nasty Nick" would be forced by pressure of public opinion, the church and parties like DIKO to take some sort of token action beyond complaining to to the UN. As there is no trade either way, sanctions are inappropriate as would be any military measures. The only tool in Nicks political tool box in such a scenario would be to close the crossing points.

I think annexation by Turkey is more than a possibility, it is a probability. I have family living in the north and they think so as well. Erdogan knows if he does annex TRNC, no one will do anything apart from a token sanction or two.


Yes I'm back (the ones who had been giving me unreasonable hassle seem to have gone).
My own view is just that (tool in the box) - the south closing the "border" but not the other
side doing it.
But would it be closed to everyone?
I remember long before the "border" officially opened being able to cross over to the "north" near
Pela, we were British in a UK Number plated car, neither side bothered with us!
Whatever happens we are in for interesting times for sure.
Geoff,


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 3:34 pm 
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Ilex wrote:
The talks are going nowhere and to be honest it is hard to imagine a settlement that the South could find acceptable, given that Turkey has no incentive to offer up any concessions at all- and let's face it no one is really in a position to do anything if Turkey decides to annex the North.

EU membership if off the agenda (Erdogan doesn't even seem interested in that, so any clout Cyprus thought it might have attained by exercising some sort of membership veto is out the window) and the EU dare not impose sanctions against Erdogan lest he direct the millions of refugees he is "looking after" on the EU's behalf towards Germany and the rest of Europe.

Too many people don't want a solution or are unwilling to accept some sort of compromise to allow such a thing to ever happen, so annexation is perhaps becoming the likeliest option



The end of your first statement is so apt, of "let's face it no one is really in a position to do anything if Turkey decides to annex the North". The only part of that sentence I would change is "No one really WANTS to be in a position", which brings us to the USA. They are happy to bomb most Arab countries, with the exception of Jordan and Saudi Arabia plus another couple of Arab countries, because it is in their interests to do so i.e. oil and selling of weapons. However, they have no interest in helping Cyprus, because their is no monetary gain for that sick country, and their even sicker so called President. After all, if he does start a nuclear war out here, as he is dicing with it at this moment with North Korea, and indeed China, then the fallout from the air will hardly pollute his air in the safety of Washington.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 4:16 pm 
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For Wavy Dave:
Let us pray to God nuclear war does not break out in the Middle East, if it does millions will perish and probably most of the Cyprus population also due to radioactive fallout.
Hopefully the result of the Iran elections will avoid this, and will avert Israel bombing them.
But the whole region is as volatile as ever - due Oil, Water (or lack of it), and Religion.
Trump (IMO) is now backing the right side (moderate Muslim States like Saudi, Bahrain, etc).
Geoff.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 6:57 am 
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geoffreys wrote:
moderate Muslim States like Saudi, Bahrain, etc.
Geoff.
Moderate muslim states? Saudi? Saudi is behind most of the problems of the middle east. It's an age old conflict between Sunni and Shia factions of the religion. Saudi is the tail that wags the US dog over oil, debt and arms sales. ISIS is Sunni and supported by Saudi.

You will notice that there are no refugees in Saudi despite the country's extraordinary wealth and the infrastructure already in place with tented cities for the Hajj. There is nothing moderate about Saudi Arabia.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 8:58 am 
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Did I not read on facebook(can't find it now) that Turkey has been fined somewhere in the region of 70 million by the European Court of Human Rights for the 1974 invasion,in particular the displacement of the Karpaz residents? So surely this should go in Cyprus's favour re talks?


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 9:15 am 
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Poppytim, agreed, however do you think Turkey are that bothered about a fine, they laugh at us all. When the drilling offshore starts properly them they will be a problem, now Erdogan has rearranged the political map in his country he is another dictator in the making, as for the talks he will not give in and cede some concessions regarding Cyprus.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 10:45 am 
Dictators r us , Today's Turkey
https://youtu.be/RT5zxvXrd0I


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 4:25 pm 
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Check this link, it looks as though Erdogan ordered his security staff to attack the protesters. (bear with the presenter until video starts)
Now he has more powers, it is not beyond the realms of impossibility he will do more damage here in Cyprus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ael30RH3gbU


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 11:27 pm 
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I was under the impression (maybe I'm wrong) that it only took two member states to block the entry of another state into the EU, in this instance the two would obviously be Greece and Cyprus voting against Turkey's attempt to join the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 10:37 am 
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Bassman63, there were two other countries who blocked it they were at the time France and Germany, hope this helps.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 11:20 am 
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Bassman63 wrote:
I was under the impression (maybe I'm wrong) that it only took two member states to block the entry of another state into the EU, in this instance the two would obviously be Greece and Cyprus voting against Turkey's attempt to join the EU.


I don't think Turkey is too bothered these days if it joins the EU or not.
I mean, why join a sinking ship?
Geoff.


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 Post subject: Re: The Cyprus Problem
PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 4:27 am 
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geoffreys wrote:
Bassman63 wrote:
I was under the impression (maybe I'm wrong) that it only took two member states to block the entry of another state into the EU, in this instance the two would obviously be Greece and Cyprus voting against Turkey's attempt to join the EU.


I don't think Turkey is too bothered these days if it joins the EU or not.
I mean, why join a sinking ship?
Geoff.

They make too much money out of people trafficking which they'd lose if they joined.


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