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Currencies don't fluctuate that quickly- if they did international commerce would be impossible to conduct because a deal that was profitable one day would become a loss maker the next.

Currently a very acceptable 1.17 (well within normal range) most commentators consider it to be slightly undervalued and of course that might change extremely quickly depending on political events in France. I don't expect the anti EU Le Pen to win this time round (although it has all the makings of being a very close call) but events in Italy and Greece are extremely like to dent the Euro later this year. Both these problems are being glossed over as much as possible until after the French and German elections in case voters got the impression that those running the Euro didn't hvae a clue what they are doing

Sterling hasn't become worthless either of course, and it's "fall" to it's current level has been behind the continued economic growth of the UK post Brexit vote- the UK is currently the fasting growing economy in the G7 (although some regions are lagging behind

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Author:	zorbathejock [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:10 am ]
Post subject:	Pound v Euro
Nearly a week since the start of Brexit and the pound is nowhere near the predicted 1.40.

Author:	Ilex [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:31 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Currencies don't fluctuate that quickly- if they did international commerce would be impossible to conduct because a deal that was profitable one day would become a loss maker the next. Currently a very acceptable 1.17 (well within normal range) most commentators consider it to be slightly undervalued and of course that might change extremely quickly depending on political events in France. I don't expect the anti EU Le Pen to win this time round (although it has all the makings of being a very close call) but events in Italy and Greece are extremely like to dent the Euro later this year. Both these problems are being glossed over as much as possible until after the French and German elections in case voters got the impression that those running the Euro didn't hvae a clue what they are doing Sterling hasn't become worthless either of course, and it's "fall" to it's current level has been behind the continued economic growth of the UK post Brexit vote- the UK is currently the fasting growing economy in the G7 (although some regions are lagging behind )

Author:	zorbathejock [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:58 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Certain members on here were predicting an immediate rise to 1.40 after Brexit triggered. 1.167 at present.

Author:	Ilex [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:05 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
A bit silly, but no further wide of the mark than those who were predicting it falling to well less than parity surely ?

Author:	geoffreys [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:11 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
zorbathejock wrote: Certain members on here were predicting an immediate rise to 1.40 after Brexit triggered. 1.167 at present. 1. I suggested 1.40 that figure came from my "chums" in the City of London. Blame them. 2. However it IS going up Vs the Euro, would you rather it went down? +2.4% right now cf. pre-A50. 3. Currently at 1.17. Other currency speculators (other than my mates) are predicting 1.32 by November. All in all it is looking good. As we say in English: "don't look a gift-horse in the mouth" Geoff.

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Author:	clive of payia [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
President Trump has already tightened up on Middle Eastern travellers to the USA, so perhaps when Trump declares that the U.S. will only trade with sovereign states, which will exclude trade with the EU, and payments are made in either US Dollars or a sovereign states own currency which is backed up by a sovereign states own central bank, which again excludes the Eurozone, the proverbial will hit the fan. When Trump announces this, Some EU countries will have a year to adapt to this ruling. So Germany for example can either cease trading with America, comply with this ruling, break up the Eurozone, or tranship their American bound goods and services via the UK, or Denmark or another EU country smart enough not to have joined the Eurozone, for onward shipping to the U.S, for a fee of course. Imagine what this would do to some currency fluctuations.

Author:	jonno [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Ilex wrote: Currencies don't fluctuate that quickly- if they did international commerce would be impossible to conduct because a deal that was profitable one day would become a loss maker the next. Currently a very acceptable 1.17 (well within normal range) most commentators consider it to be slightly undervalued and of course that might change extremely quickly depending on political events in France. I don't expect the anti EU Le Pen to win this time round (although it has all the makings of being a very close call) but events in Italy and Greece are extremely like to dent the Euro later this year. Both these problems are being glossed over as much as possible until after the French and German elections in case voters got the impression that those running the Euro didn't hvae a clue what they are doing Sterling hasn't become worthless either of course, and it's "fall" to it's current level has been behind the continued economic growth of the UK post Brexit vote- the UK is currently the fasting growing economy in the G7 (although some regions are lagging behind ) Agreed. The current level is fine with me (of course a lot of us would like the pound to be worth more for slightly selfish reasons) but its current level is helping a lot of exports from the UK and boosting the UK economy accordingly and that is good news I think. I expect the Germans at least would like to see the Euro worth a bit less against the pound.

Author:	zorbathejock [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:40 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Whether the rate is good or bad it is not what the "prophets" were predicting, just as the Prophets of doom after the vote were predicting a fall, though they were nearer the mark.

Author:	Ilex [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:47 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
I reckoned Sterling would fall to about 1.18 after the vote and rise to about 1.22 once the dust had settled-where it goes from there depends on the Brexit deal and the politics in Europe (and transferred money accordingly ) I don't consider myself a prophet, I'm just not stupid or politically biased

Author:	stormy [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:55 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
If anyone really knew what will happen to exchange rates in the future , then they would end up very wealthy and not share the information with the likes of us.

Author:	Ilex [ Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Currency levels are not an entirely random process- there is a methodology to it that incorporates both the speculative and the empirical. Realising that might not make you billions, but it can give you a slight advantage If you can only see what "might" or "will" happen based on your own political preferences and preconceived notions you will never be able to understand it. From what I can see there has been an awful lot of that on this site ?

Author:	Ilex [ Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Cracked 1.19 today after hovering just below 1.18 for a very long time. I suspect the reality of getting rid of the doomsday Quislings and giving May and the government a chance to really put the boot in with the EU negotiations has changed the market's perception of Britain's prospects considerably

Author:	George [ Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:47 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro

Author:	jonno [ Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:18 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Ilex wrote: Cracked 1.19 today after hovering just below 1.18 for a very long time. I suspect the reality of getting rid of the doomsday Quislings and giving May and the government a chance to really put the boot in with the EU negotiations has changed the market's perception of Britain's prospects considerably Exactly my view, yet typically the BBC - and the Deutsche Bank - are saying the pound is rising because there is now more chance of a "soft" Brexit! They never give up.....

Author:	Topgun [ Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:55 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Quote: Friday I was talking to Neil at FC Exchange, they were at a loss as to why the pound was so weak against the Euro Maybe Mr.Carney has the answer, given his constant expressed 'optimism' (not) in respect to Brexit?

Author:	Wish I was there [ Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:29 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
i think a long road back to anything like where it was - on the bright side I have visited Edinburgh and London in the last couple of weeks which is brim full of US, Chinese and other holidaymakers. Just will have to cut back on the odd beer when I am over. (V unlikely)

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Author:	Expresspete [ Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Morgan Stanley (as reported in The Independent) are predicting sterling will be below the Euro for the first time in its history by early 2018

Author:	zorbathejock [ Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Maybe Geoff's Pals got it wrong and it will be 1.40 pounds to the Euro

Author:	lowvoltage [ Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:18 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
Friday I was talking to Neil at FC Exchange, they were at a loss as to why the pound was so weak against the Euro, they say it is probably due to some investors away on annual holiday, looking back that was the trend last year, either way it is not good, but we can cheer up when the good times come back.

Author:	SandT [ Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:24 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
The upside is you can send some back to the UK and wait for rate to rise before moving it back! Terry

Author:	zorbathejock [ Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:58 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Pound v Euro
SandT wrote: The upside is you can send some back to the UK and wait for rate to rise before moving it back! Terry That's if you've got any to send back.